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BMC: Rebels play spoilers, margins set to dip
Dhaval Kulkarni
Mumbai, January 21 : Though many influential rebels, including former deputy
mayor Arun Deo (BJP), Bal Nare (Shiv Sena) and Babubhai Bhawanji (Congress),
have backed out of the race, it is not enough to save major political
parties the jitters in the run-up to the BMC polls.
There are still about 2,357 candidates in the fray for 227 seats. And
considering that as many as 52 candidates had scraped through in the polls
of 2002 with less than 600 votes, all parties have reasons to be worried.
The areas which saw low victory margins included Mulund, Bandra, Matunga,
Kandiwali, Worli, Mahim, Malad and Chembur. The message from the last
election was minor rebellions and infightings can tilt the balance against
the candidates. It has done little to change the ground reality this time.
Politicians cutting across party lines admit that there is a chance of
rebels playing spoilers, which they fear will see candidates being elected
by similarly slim margins.
The Shiv Sena-BJP combine which has to contend with the Maharashtra
Navanirman Sena (MNS) floated by Raj Thackeray, and former Sena strongman
and now Revenue Minister Narayan Rane, besides the anti-incumbency factor,
is troubled by the presence of prominent rebles like BMC Health Committee
chairperson Mangal Mange Bhanushali (BJP) and corporators Vilas Chawari,
Pandurang Amre and Shwetali Patil (Shiv Sena).
While BJP and Sena leaders admit that incumbent corporators denied the
nominations may try to upset the official nominees, they fear the BJP
activists, not happy at the party getting just 72 seats to contest, may also
try to spoil the Sena's chances. The Sena also has to contend with the
changing demography of the city which has eroded its tradional vote base.
The scene is no better in the Congress and the NCP camps. Both the parties
are facing a problem on internal dissensions over the issue of nominations.
The vote split between the Congress and the NCP in the eastern suburbs and
the city areas also has the ability to mar their chances. The parties will
also have to contend with the candidates of the third front, a conglomerate
of the Communist parties, the Samajwadi Party and the splinter groups of the
Republican Party of India, which will eat into it's Dalit and Muslim base.
The infighting between various Congress factions, lead by Rane, city
Congress chief Gurudas Kamath, Union Petroleum Minister Murli Deora and the
influential North Indian lobbies lead by MLA Kripashanker Singh and Sanjay
Nirupam, may also queer the pitch.
Congressmen note that in certain wards there are around 50 people who have
filed nominations. In case the nomination was granted to one candidate, some
of those denied it may rebel, noted a leader.
However, politicians on both sides of the fence are maintaining a brave
face. Said standing committee chairperson and Sena corporator Ravindra
Waikar: "The Sena- BJP voters cast their votes on ideological lines and
hence there is little chance of them voting for the rebels."
Added Congress corporator Sameer Desai: "Though rebels will be a headache
for most parties, politically aware voters will ensure that such rebels and
independent candidates will not be able to make it." However, the chances of
a low voter turn out due to the voting day being Thursday, are giving
jitters to all parties, though the Sena- BJP may be hit harder in such a
scenario.
Number crunching
Victory Margins Coproators elected
0 - 100 10
100-200 8
200-300 7
300-400 13
400-500 8
500-600 3
600-700 7
700-800 11
800-900 8
900-1000 3
1000-2000 52
2000-3000 22
3000-5000 44
5000+ 31
Total Corporators in 2002 : 227
editor@expressindia.com
URL : http://www.indianexpress.com/story/21468.html
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