Police, punters believe SS-BJP will return to BMC

The MNS and Third Front could get anywhere between six to 12 seats...

Ten days before the BMC elections speculation is rife that the ruling Sena-BJP combine will return to power thanks to the Congress and NCP deciding to face the polls separately.
Reports by the Special Branch of the Mumbai Police and Intelligence Bureau suggest the Sena will again be the largest ruling party in the BMC, with around hundred seats falling into its kitty. With the allied BJP contesting at a few strongholds of the party it is speculated that the saffron alliance would not find it difficult to beat the Congress to the simple majority in the 227 member house. But despite winning 107-112 seats, the Sena-BJP combine may fall short of half-a-dozen to grab power.

Congress, for the first time since the formation of the NCP, is in the fray on its own, and both parties are contesting all 227 seats. It is likely that while the Congress might get 60-65 seats the NCP will get 30-35. That would add up to a hundred, more than a dozen seats short of the simple majority. Punters speculating on the elections have similar opinions as that of the police sources.

With both the major alliances falling short of wining a clear majority, smaller participants will play an important role. The MNS and Third Front could get anywhere between six to 12 seats. However, neither of them is likely to shake hands with the Sena.  The Sena-BJP will therefore have to bank on independents most of whom are their own rebels. The rebels might grab 15-20 seats. And the Sena-BJP would not find it difficult to lure the former loyalists back, provided the Rane factor does not have much effect.

URL- http://www.cybernoon.com/DisplayArticle.asp?section=fromthepress&subsection=news&xfile=January2007_news_standard3360